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Wen | Zero One

With the announcement of China Ping-Pong Jedi Counter-Strike on New Year’s Day and the announcement of King of the Sky on May 1st in 2023, the lineup of this year’s Spring Festival file has been basically determined as the following seven films: Wandering Earth 2, Unknown, Manjianghong, Deep Sea, Exchange of Life, China Ping-Pong Jedi Counter-Strike, Bears Come and Stay with Me, Bear Heart.

The number of seven blockbusters is basically the standard for the Spring Festival in recent years. In 2021, the seven Spring Festival movies were Detective Chinatown 3, Hi, Mom, A Writer’s Odyssey, The Order to Serve the Gods, Crowd Surging, New Gods: Nezha Reborn and Boonie Bears:The Wild Life; There are 8 movies for the Spring Festival in 2022: Watergate Bridge of Changjin Lake, This Killer is Not Too Cold, Miracle Stupid Child, Bears Coming Back to Earth, Four Seas, Sniper, Pleasant Goat and Big Big Big Big Wolf Out of the Future, Little Tiger Pier Hero, but Little Tiger Pier Hero only won 10 million box office.

Before the official arrival of the Spring Festival file, what content features can be seen in the film lineup of the Spring Festival file in 2023? Who is the main force that people expect, and who has the possibility of becoming a dark horse?

Judging from the box office expectation, all previous Spring Festival files can basically be divided into two types of "players":

One is the type with higher box office lower limit. Movies with high popularity in the early stage or clear selling points are mainly composed of "seed players" in the schedule or the dominant themes of Spring Festival files such as comedy and youth animation, and the pre-sale situation is good. The former is Detective Chinatown 3’s Watergate Bridge of Changjin Lake, while the latter is represented by the series This Killer is Not Too Cold and Quiet and Bears Appear.

The second is the type with high uncertainty. "Dark horse or accompanying running" is possible. Before the official release, it is difficult for both the audience and the market to predict its final box office trend. Even if there are stars or IP guarantees, it is difficult to be a guarantee in the ever-changing Spring Festival market. Winners are like The Wandering Earth in those days, and losers in the market are like "Order to Serve the Gods" and "Four Seas".

Among the seven films scheduled for 2023, the main "stability factors" in the market are Wandering Earth 2, Exchange of Life, Bears Come and Go with Me and Bear Heart.

Judging from the popularity before the screening, there are many industry forecasts that have already booked the champion of the Spring Festival for Wandering Earth 2. Compared with the first film, Wandering Earth 2 obviously has more abundant funds and more appealing IP. In addition to Jason Wu’s continued return, Andy Lau, Li Xuejian, Ning Li and other powerful factions joined in the cast; Judging from the trailer, the plot of the second part will have hardcore sci-fi thoughts, human nature speculation and special effects scenes at the same time. It is worth looking forward to how director Frant Gwo and producer Liu Cixin will continue to explore the depth and Chinese expression of sci-fi stories.

When it was released in The Wandering Earth in 2019, the audience and the market didn’t have high expectations for domestic sci-fi, with only 11.4% of its first-day screening, ranking fourth at the box office in a single day, and only after the first wave of word-of-mouth was released did it become the biggest dark horse of the year. Just when the audience thought that The Wandering Earth would be the clarion call for the rise of domestic sci-fi blockbusters, the same year’s Shanghai Fortress directly buried domestic sci-fi. In 2022, the sci-fi theme "Tomorrow’s Battle" and "Mozart in Outer Space" performed in general, while the selling point elements of Moon Man with higher box office focused on Shen Teng and comedy types.

It is precisely because the development of domestic hard science fiction genre is basically at a standstill in the next few years in The Wandering Earth, so the market expectation of Wandering Earth 2, which was the first to announce the Spring Festival in 2023, has been further raised. On Cat’s Eye and Taobao Film, Wandering Earth 2 ranks first in the Spring Festival.

Exchange of Life is the only film featuring comedy in this Spring Festival. The comedy genre has always been the "just need" of the Spring Festival file, and it is also the easiest field to "be small and broad". I don’t need to go into details about Hi, Mom’s historical dark horse counterattack. The killer is not too cold and quiet, but it steadily won 2.5 billion+box office with a general cast and a low reputation. In fact, it highlights the audience’s hard-core demand for comedy. As long as it can make people laugh, comedy has great potential in the Spring Festival market.

Judging from the trailer of "Exchange of Life", it is basically a comedy effect with fantasy elements guiding the wrong position, which is actually a major stream of comedy type creation in recent years. The female director Su Lun’s last film "Living Together in Time and Space" won about 900 million yuan at the box office at a small and medium cost. As long as the plot of "Exchange of Life" is above the passing line, I believe this film will achieve good box office results in the Spring Festival of 2023 as a "comedy".

There is no need to analyze the stability elements of "Bears Come with Me". In recent years, the series "Bears haunt" has never missed the Spring Festival stalls, and has steadily taken away more than 500 million box office every year. In 2022, "Bears haunt and return to the earth" is close to 1 billion. This series has succeeded in the continuous creation of IP, and from the perspective of Bears Coming Back to Earth, its production level is becoming more and more refined with the improvement of investment level, which is likely to broaden the audience from the children’s market.

On the other side of the stability of the market, naturally, there are those movies that are more likely to have "upper and lower limits" at the box office. At present, Man Jiang Hong, Unknown, China Ping-Pong’s Jedi Strike Back and Deep Sea can all be classified into this part. The popularity before screening is high and low, and each has its own unique market selling point. However, none of them has the stable "market main force" expectations like this year’s Wandering Earth 2, last year’s Watergate Bridge and Detective Chinatown 3 the year before last.

Directed by Cheng Er and starring Tony Leung Chiu Wai and YiBo, The Unknown should be the movie with the highest box office uncertainty in this year’s Spring Festival. As the main theme film produced by Bona Film, the theme of Shanghai spy war and Tony Leung Chiu Wai attracted a group of audiences, and as the first new film produced by director Cheng Er after "The Romance of Death" in 2016, it attracted another group of audiences. The fan effect brought by starring YiBo constituted a new basic disc-in short, it seems that there are different opinions, but the specific communication effect is still unknown.

Director Cheng Er’s last commercial film "The Romance of Death" failed to reach the expected box office. Thanks to a group of movie stars such as Ge You, Zhang Ziyi and Tadanobu Asano, it only earned 122 million box office, which made Huayi Brothers suffer a major defeat that year. The Douban score of Romantic Death is still 7.7. It is a film that is highly praised by fans, but it is obviously dragged down by the impression of "art film" in its dissemination, which has affected the box office performance. Therefore, in the trailer of "Nobody", the film side directly typed the Chinese characters of "super commercial film", which is a bit of a trick, and may also include the idea of reversing public expectations.

But in the end, what kind of Cheng Er’s works will the audience see, whether it will be closer to the market public or personalized artistic expression, and it is difficult to draw effective conclusions only from the current material information.

The box office expectation of "Man Jiang Hong" is also quite different in the market. On the one hand, the main creative lineup assembled by this film is one of the best in this Spring Festival file: director Zhang Yimou has returned to the theme of historical costume, starring Shen Teng, Jackson Yee, Zhang Yi and Lei Jiayin, almost all of whom have made outstanding box office achievements in the past, and Shen Teng, Zhang Yi and Jackson Yee are among the top ten cumulative box office of Chinese actors. At present, the number of people who want to see this film ranks second in Cat’s Eye and third in Taobao Film, and the popularity before screening is still relatively high.

But on the other hand, everything is full of variables about whether this suspense story about Yue Fei’s costume, which tells four years after his death, fits with the Spring Festival file, how high the public’s acceptance is, what role Jackson Yee, who is murderous, and Shen Teng, who has his own comedy atmosphere, plays.

After Shadow in 2018, director Zhang Yimou’s film style has gradually changed from paying attention to the heavy expression of visual color and sense of ceremony in the past to being plain. One Second’s Above the Cliff and Sniper are all slowly telling stories instead of grabbing people with "scenes", but what new exploration China will make in film art in Manjianghong is worthy of the attention of fans.

At present, Deng Chao and Yu Baimei’s "China Ping-Pong Fight Back" has the lowest popularity before screening in the Spring Festival of 2023, while Cat’s Eye and Taobao Film are at the bottom. Previously, the narrative of domestic sports themes represented by Leap was lacking, and almost all of them were modeled narrative and characterization, so it was difficult to gain obvious advantages in the cinema market, especially in the highly competitive Spring Festival file; But on the other hand, telling the reversal story of table tennis in China in the 1990s, The Jedi Strike Back of China Table Tennis actually has a certain "popularization" function. Many ordinary audiences think that China table tennis has always been ahead of the world in cognition, and this film may be able to do propaganda articles in this respect.

The animated film Deep Sea was very popular in the previous summer file, and this kind of all-age animation type may also be more suitable for the summer file. As a work that Tian Xiaopeng, the director of The Return of the Great Sage, will shoot all his life, Deep Sea has declared its "visual wonders" highly shocking since the release of the first trailer, with its unique picture style of ink particles and magnificent and colorful fantasy marine world texture. The animation’s outstanding performance in the visual mountain can already be guaranteed, but how it performs as an original script can only be verified after it is officially released.

However, in terms of market share, in the past few years, from the Spring Festival to the summer in Legend of Deification, the box office of Rebirth of Nezha, a light-chasing animation, was tepid, and only the box office of Bears has been rising every year. No full-age animation has achieved more than 1 billion box office results in the Spring Festival. "Deep Sea" will stand out from the box office in the Spring Festival, and I’m afraid it needs to reach the level of surprise like that in The Wandering Earth.

Conclusion:

In 2022, the operating rate of cinemas once fell to the bottom, and returned to the peak of 90%+ in the New Year’s Day schedule with the change of epidemic policy, and the movie-watching traffic recovered obviously in the past month. The Hollywood blockbuster Avatar 2 played a preheating role in this "recovery period".

In this year, the cinemas that Emperor UA couldn’t hold back have been eliminated, and the surviving cinemas certainly hope that the next Spring Festival file will be as hot as possible. Therefore, on the road to the recovery of the cinema film market, the Spring Festival file in 2023 is the first "hard battle".

The menu is ready. Will you pay for the China film this Spring Festival?

* Original article, please indicate the source when reprinting.

When love disappears, how to say goodbye?

Text | Zhang jiaqi

Edit | Zhao Ordinary

Goodbye lover will have a big finale this Wednesday.

This is a "divorce variety show". The program group invited three groups of guests in different divorce States: Guo Keyu and Zhang He have been divorced for one year; KK and Tong Chenjie are facing the "seven-year itch" and are considering whether to divorce; Wang Qiuyu and Zhu Yaqiong have just entered the cooling-off period of divorce. They wrote the final answer to their marriage through an 18-day trip.

To some extent, this variety show has certain practical value. Guo Keyu asked in the program, "What if there is no love? Can you say goodbye with love? " Perhaps, compared with how to find love, how to deal with "post-intimacy" after love disappears is also an important topic for contemporary young people.

In fairy tales, the prince and princess go through thousands of difficulties, and the ending is always "live a happy life". However, real life is full of difficulties. When the pink filter was removed, Goodbye Lover wrote a sequel to the fairy tale, which was not perfect but true enough.

A sequel to a fairy tale

On January 1, 2021, the cooling-off period of divorce was officially implemented. Like all couples who want a divorce, Zhu Yaqiong and Lao Wang need to think hard for 30 days, and if they don’t change their minds, they can get a divorce certificate.

The difference is that their divorce cooling-off period was spent on a trip. As a pair of guests in Goodbye Lovers, together with two other couples, they started an 18-day long-distance trip in Xinjiang and confirmed their minds in the process.

This is a reality show variety around the topic of "divorce". According to the statistics at the end of 2020, the national average divorce rate is as high as 39.33%, and about four out of every ten married couples choose to divorce, with Jilin Province having the highest divorce rate of over 70%. And this data has been on the rise for 16 consecutive years.

Even in the case that divorce is so common, Goodbye Lover still takes some risks by choosing "divorce" as the incision in the marriage relationship. Ni Ping, a flying guest, also mentioned that it is not easy to show his marital status in front of a national audience. In this program, conflicts and collapses are frequent scenes, and even when recorded by the camera, it is difficult for the guests to control their emotions.

Wu Mengzhi, the chief producer, once mentioned that the most important part of the reality show is "selecting people". As long as the right guests are selected, the program will be 80% successful. In Goodbye to Lovers, three couples are in different stages of marriage, which also covers the problems existing in marriage relations in real life to a great extent.

As can be seen from the public opinion field, people’s attitudes towards marriage have changed dramatically over the years. This change is also reflected in the program. "Living together" is no longer the first priority of marriage. Compared with it, contemporary young men and women pay more attention to spiritual harmony and emotional resonance.

Therefore, how to manage a marriage well has become a more difficult proposition than before. Trivial matters are still obstacles to be overcome. In addition, intimacy has added more dimensions.

For Lao Wang and Zhu Yaqiong, the biggest enemy of intimacy is "way of thinking". When they got married, they didn’t hold a wedding or take wedding photos, which became a thorn in Zhu Yaqiong’s heart.

Zhu Yaqiong longs for romance and freedom, and pays attention to the sense of ceremony, while Lao Wang is a "pragmatic school". This collision in thinking is reflected in all aspects of life. In the program, Zhu Yaqiong mentioned a story many times: Lao Wang even counted down the hug between them.

The reason for Zhang He and Guo Keyu’s divorce is that they can’t walk into each other’s world. They belong to "flash marriage", and the decision to get married is rather hasty. After having children, they also lack time to cultivate their feelings, so there is a serious shortage of communication.

Do you have love after all? This is a problem that has always existed in this relationship. Contradictory personality and habits of work and rest make this couple, who have been married for ten years, become "the most familiar strangers". However, this is also the reason why this group of guests are most optimistic about remarriage: it seems that this 18-day trip turned out to be a few days when two people have known each other for so long.

In a link in the latter part of the program, the guests wrote the most impressive words of each other on the note and shared the story at that time. Most of these stories appear in the early days of love or marriage, belonging to young men and women who have just stepped into love. Wang Qiuyu will send a romantic short message "I’ll go while you’re here", and Guo Keyu is thinking about the flight time of Zhang He’s return trip.

The beginning of love is always written in great detail. There are sweet stories of love at first sight to provide fantasy, and there are also hundreds of love rules for reference. What "Goodbye Lover" presents is the "chicken feather in one place" staged after the end of the fairy tale.

Lian hun zong yi AB noodles

No amount of sweet filters can hide the fact that marriage is on the verge of breaking up.

When KK and Tong Chenjie first appeared, they looked very loving. Even Guo Keyu teased them and came to participate in "The Romantic Travel of Wife". However, with the development of the program, the problems in the marriage relationship between KK and Tong Chenjie gradually exposed, and the audience suddenly found that these problems hidden under the iceberg seemed to be more serious.

This is the difference between Goodbye Lover and other marriage and love variety shows: when feelings are peeled off, each paragraph has its own bitter taste.

Love variety shows entered the era of 2.0 in China, starting with "Signal of Heartbeat". In March 2018, the Korean love variety "Heart Signal2" premiered. Although this program has been broadcast in the first season in 2017, it was not until the dog blood "love triangle" appeared in the second season that it caused a wider discussion in China, and it also made the "real world dog blood drama" become the key frame of love variety.

In the same year, Tencent Video purchased the copyright and launched the first season of Heartbeat Signal. In the form of the program, the Korean version was almost completely reproduced. They are all in love, superimposed with "reasoning" elements, and guessing the relationship between amateur guests has become a major attraction of this kind of variety show. Since then, Iqiyi, Youku and Mango TV have also successively launched programs such as Love You Me, Let’s Love, Dream Space and so on.

Although the forms are different, most of the love variety shows in the 2.0 era follow a similar "template", that is, strange men and women are "put" into the same field, and they can fall in love at will within a limited time.

This is the A side of the variety show of marriage and love, which provides people with the satisfaction of emotional needs. Taking CP has become the first meaning of this kind of program, and watching "Xiuluo Field" and love line reasoning has also increased the effect of the program.

Goodbye Lover is the B side of the variety show of marriage and love: here, the beautiful feelings are either suddenly revealed, or the stories presented have become a thing of the past, based on more real life.

A marriage can hardly exist independently between husband and wife. The simple "1V1 link" obviously only exists in the early stage of the establishment of intimate relationship. In the marriage relationship, there are more and more complicated issues to consider. This is the first truth shown in Goodbye Lover.

Dong Chenyu, a lecturer at Renmin University of China, mentioned in an interview with the media that Chinese should not only consider the relationship between the two parties in love, but also the relationship between the two families behind them. This is a marriage and love model with East Asian cultural characteristics. Therefore, compared with other love variety shows that focus on the early stage of love, there are many ties between the two in Goodbye Lover, which may be parents and children, economic status and social status, and even friends, colleagues and predecessors.

Take KK and Tong Chenjie as an example. The core contradiction between them is whether they should have a child. KK insisted that Tong Chenjie should have children, and the deeper reason was that he always lacked security in this relationship. In the program, he repeatedly mentioned that he was not from Shanghai, but moved to Shanghai for the sake of Tong Chenjie. He had no sense of belonging in Shanghai, and his economic situation and career development were not as good as that of his wife. All kinds of problems led to the pressure in his marriage relationship.

Besides, the influence of family of origin is also reflected in this program. Lao Wang mentioned in the program that he received a "genius education" since childhood, and his father was extremely strict with him, giving priority to criticism and lacking emotional communication, and he also used this model in getting along with Zhu Yaqiong. Huang Zhizhong hit the nail on the head and pointed out Lao Wang’s problem: "Wang Qiuyu is not a question of loving his wife, but he may not love himself."

The third truth lies in "conflict". In the "A-side" love variety, the conflict is necessary but unpredictable, and even "human intervention" is needed in the link setting. For example, the mini date link and the rule of "two-day and one-night group outing" newly introduced in Heartbeat Signal 4 are all aimed at enhancing the sense of conflict and adding uncertainties to the emotional line, thus improving the possibility of the emergence of "Xiuluo Field".

In Goodbye Lover, conflicts can happen anytime and anywhere. KK and Tong Chenjie quarreled repeatedly at the dinner table because of drinking. Even Yang Di, the "king of variety" who can be skilled in all kinds of variety shows, was at a loss when the war suddenly escalated.

After the pink filter faded, when the more real intimate relationship was presented naked to the audience, Goodbye Lover actually took a small step forward in the field of marriage and love variety.

"Heterogeneous"

Zhang He and Guo Keyu are the most vocal couples for "remarriage". Searching for their CP clips in bilibili has more than 50 pages. Some people joked on the barrage that everyone was "looking for candy in the glass."

This reflects a certain demand of contemporary young people: contemporary young people like to watch others fall in love more and more.

The drama series with the theme of love has changed from "romance" to "sweet pet", and "parents are short" has been eliminated, and the love-hate entanglement between the male and female protagonists has become the main plot, implying that all the surrounding plots unrelated to love have been stripped; "Ke CP" has become a hot trend, and the actors who play CP in the play need to continuously extend their business period to meet the imagination of fans. After the end of the drama, CP powder is also looking for the "evidence of love" between the two in real life.

Under such a trend, variety shows have also become the carrier of "watching love". Even in the talk show variety show, there are popular CPS such as "Snow Country Train" and "Mianli", which make countless people take the lead. Therefore, even in the marriage and love variety show "Goodbye Lover", which has already written the ending and completely stripped the filter, there are also audiences who are addicted to CP.

In the era of marriage and love variety 2.0 with making sweetness as the mainstream, Goodbye Lover is an alien. This is one of the reasons why it can’t move from the circle to the national explosion. Although the score of the program in Douban is as high as 8.7, the number of raters is less than 20,000, which is lower than the series of Heartbeat Signals.

Another reason may be that when intimate relationships become complicated, it is difficult for the public opinion environment at this stage to provide sufficient discussion space.

In the process of exposing the problems among the three pairs of guests one by one, the man’s problems are more obvious, for example, Lao Wang overlooks Zhu Yaqiong’s emotional needs, while KK is male chauvinist and alcoholic, so the male guests are quickly labeled as "love rat". Since then, whenever the woman makes some "weakness" actions, she will be evaluated as "one willing to fight and one willing to suffer".

Tong Chenjie was regarded by the teacher in the observation room as the person with the highest "love for business". After the fierce conflict between them, Tong Chenjie would take the initiative to resolve the conflict every time. But for some viewers, this "initiative" does not have any positive effect, because KK is obviously "hopeless".

However, these violent conflicts are actually only slices of married life, and marriage is a far more complicated proposition than imagined. Shi Xiuxiong, a psychological counselor, pointed out, "Now people are too arbitrary and judgmental when talking about marriage and love. No intimate relationship can be arbitrarily summarized by a few simple labels. "

Although it can’t be an "explosion", there is no doubt that "Goodbye Lover" has added a new perspective to the current variety show of marriage and love. Even the guests themselves were not sure at first what kind of program they were participating in. KK didn’t even notice the problems in their marriage, but Tong Chenjie decided to sign up. Zhang He also asked the program group before the show: Do you want to fix us up again?

"second time around" is a common bridge in romance novels. In Goodbye Lover, besides expecting the ending, it is more from observing others to observing oneself. Shi Xiuxiong mentioned that this program exposed the unharmonious part of the marriage relationship to the public’s field of vision, which was constructive for the audience, helped more people to know that their problems were not isolated cases, reduced the sense of shame and learned to accept themselves.

In addition, not all divorced couples are "old and dead", especially in the case of a long marriage, property can be divided, but it is difficult to completely separate each other’s social circles, family members and even children. Therefore, when the marriage relationship comes to an end, it is necessary to start a new relationship.

Lao Wang and Zhu Yaqiong have known each other for more than twenty years, and they have become an inseparable part of each other’s lives. After the divorce, they may be able to reopen a "friend relationship". For Zhang He and Guo Keyu, how to start a new relationship is more important than whether to decide to remarry. Many viewers mentioned, "They don’t need to remarry. They can start from falling in love and go through the normal process."

For a generation that is lonely and afraid of intimacy, the sweet love in marriage variety shows is to satisfy the fantasy of "fairy tales", while Goodbye Lover is more like a fairy tale for adults, which provides a reverse value-"Seeing the complexity of a broken marriage will make you have a correct expectation for marriage."

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