On March 10th, China, Saudi Arabia and Iran issued a joint statement in Beijing, announcing Shay’s decision to resume diplomatic relations and start relevant procedures, and activating the shelved important bilateral agreements between the two countries. This is a rare high-profile moment in China’s diplomacy, which greatly enhances China’s international influence, especially the effectiveness of diplomatic mediation, and will inject new stability into the situation in the Middle East and drive the trend of relaxation, relaxation and normalization of relations within the region.
World public opinion is shocked that the Middle East is not the main stage of China, but dominated by the United States or Russia. Major peace operations in the Middle East are often facilitated or guaranteed by the United States. For example, in 1978, US President Carter facilitated a peace agreement between Egypt and Israel at Camp David, and in 1993, US President Clinton presided over the signing of the Oslo Agreement between Palestine and Israel. Therefore, this incident will set a precedent for Beijing to successfully mediate major regional crises, and it is possible to create a "Beijing model".
This is an unannounced secret meeting. Diplomatic circles, the press and critics were deeply surprised by Beijing’s sudden release of the tripartite joint statement during the NPC and CPPCC sessions, but they had to admit that China had successfully solved the problem of breaking diplomatic relations between the two most important enemies in the Middle East for seven years. China’s top official in charge of foreign affairs, Wang Yi, reached a positive result after five days of closed-door talks with his Shay colleagues, and showed the tripartite joint statement document to the outside world.
The content of the tripartite joint statement is not long, but it is very weighty, which highlights the key role played by China, especially the top leaders, and shows the strong desire and specific commitment of the two countries to rebuild, including the time frame. The statement stressed that the Beijing talks were held in response to the positive initiative of the Supreme Leader of president, China, to support Shay in developing good-neighborly and friendly relations, and in accordance with the consensus reached between the Supreme Leader and the leaders of the two countries that China should host and support the talks between the two countries. Shay agreed to resume diplomatic relations and reopen embassies and representative offices within two months at most, and the foreign ministers of the two sides will specifically discuss the follow-up matters such as resuming the exchange of ambassadors.
Equally important, Shai promised to "activate" the security cooperation agreement signed in 2001 and the general agreement on bilateral cooperation signed in 1998, covering many fields such as economy, trade, investment, technology, science, culture, sports and youth. The conclusion of the tripartite joint statement means that Shay’s bad relationship, which suddenly deteriorated in 2016 and led to the breaking of diplomatic relations and all contacts, will become history.
Affected by this favorable situation, the momentum of dialogue, relaxation and normalization of relations in the Middle East will be strengthened and deepened. The fragile relationship between Saudi Arabia and Qatar will also be further normalized. The latter has distanced itself from Iran because it is unwilling to follow Saudi Arabia, and has been isolated and sanctioned by Saudi Arabia and its small alliance. If the Shaka relationship is fully recovered, it will contribute to the unity of the Arab countries in the Gulf and promote the tortuous integration process of the Gulf Cooperation Council.
Similarly, Syria, which has formed a United front with Iran and jointly formed the "Shia Arc", is also expected to see more dawn of returning to the big family on the end of the "bitter road" isolated by the Arab League for 12 years. Saudi Arabia tried to overthrow the Damascus regime in order to break the penetration of Iranian forces into the northern part of the Arab world and break its own strategic pressure on the northern line. Similarly, the Shiite Houthi armed forces in Yemen influenced by Iran may change their attitudes and strategies and are willing to continue dialogue and even compromise with Saudi Arabia on ending the Yemen war. Saudi Arabia has always accused the Houthi armed forces of being a regional agent of Iran and posing a strategic threat to itself from the southern line, while Iran criticized Saudi Arabia for violently interfering in Yemen’s internal affairs.
Moreover, with the full restoration of relations between Saudi Arabia and Iraq, two radical nationalist forces opposed to Israel — — Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Palestine may be blacklisted by Saudi Arabia and Egypt. Hamas has been funded by Saudi Arabia for a long time and accepted Riyadh’s mediation in conflicts with Israel many times. However, with the deterioration of relations between Saudi Arabia and, Riyadh regards Hamas, who is also pleasing Teheran, as a traitor. As for Hezbollah in Lebanon, it has been a thorn in Saudi Arabia’s side in Lebanon since it was founded with the support of the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in 1982. Riyadh is eager to support its rival Sunni forces and crowd out the infiltration of Iranian influence. It also hates Hezbollah’s constant stimulation of Israel, which leads to the end of the war and creates a moral dilemma for its moderate Middle East policy.
After the publication of the tripartite joint statement, Wang Yi emphasized that the Ukrainian crisis was not the only one in the world, implying that other big countries focused too much on the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and neglected the solution of other hot issues. Wang Yi described this major diplomatic achievement as a victory of peace, highlighting China’s core diplomatic concept of "harmony is the most important" and his proposition of building a community of human destiny. Wang Yi emphasized that a mutually acceptable solution can be found by holding equal dialogue in the spirit of mutual respect. Wang Yi also reiterated that the Middle East is the Middle East for the people of the Middle East and supports the independence, unity and cooperation of the countries in the Middle East.
Wang Yi is not only the host of the secret talks, but also an active mediator of Saudi-Iranian relations and a concrete promoter of peace and stability, dialogue and cooperation in the Gulf. In March, 2021, Wang Yi, then foreign minister, visited six Middle Eastern countries, including Shay, and pushed China and Iran to reach a 25-year strategic cooperation framework document. In January 2022, Wang Yi arranged China’s diplomatic "Middle East Week" in Wuxi, Jiangsu, and met with foreign ministers of six Middle East countries, including Shay. These two waves of welcoming and sending activities highlight China’s great attention to Middle East affairs, enhance the strategic trust of Middle East countries in China, and to some extent lubricate the easing relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran.
Of course, Chairman Supreme Leader’s visit to Saudi Arabia at the end of 2022 and the two historic summits have pushed China-Arab relations to be systematic and institutionalized, which in turn incited Iran’s willingness to strengthen cooperation with China and contributed to Iranian President Leahy’s first visit to China in February this year. If we consider that Leahy will be the most powerful potential successor to Iran’s supreme leader, the significance is even more different. These two heads of state diplomacy played a key role in Shay’s announcement of reconciliation in Beijing this week.
Of course, we must not forget that countries in the region are generally happy to see the normalization of relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran. In particular, Iraq and Oman have done a lot of persuasion and matchmaking work, which has laid a good foundation. Let us not forget that Saudi Arabia and Iran themselves have a strong desire to end the seven-year struggle, because in the past decade or so, they have overdrawn too much for regional affairs and are overwhelmed. Moreover, with the decline of the strategic position of the Middle East in the United States and Russia, the big countries in the Middle East are more willing to sit together and discuss how to govern this troubled region.
The international community generally welcomes Shay, two powerful countries in the Middle East and two major energy producers and exporters, to mend fences, because this is conducive to the stability of the energy market in the Middle East and the world. The U.S. government is also pleased with this achievement, and has made a positive statement, because from the Obama administration, it hoped that Shay would stop the identity politics struggle, focus on regional anti-terrorism actions, and bring Iran into the nuclear non-proliferation system, so as to avoid Israel’s use of force and drag the United States back into the quagmire of the Middle East war, because the strategic focus of the United States has clearly shifted to Europe and Asia to deal with Russia and China.
Author: Professor Ma Xiaolin zhejiang international studies university, Dean of the Institute of Mediterranean Rim.
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